Taper Week 3 : Madness and Insecurity

I don't know how you feel about the taper, but mine usually goes something like this :

Week 1 : YAY REST!! This feels great, I don't think I could have taken much more bashing.
Week 2 : I'm so rested that every run feels like HEAVEN.
Week 3 : Second-guessing and phantom pains that come with the reduced activity level.

Here I am, just beginning week 3. I just completed my final long run of the training cycle. My next long run will be the marathon. It was a leisurely (and flat!) 8 miles through the marsh chez Alex. While we ran along, I asked Matt and Alex what they think about while they are racing. How do they keep themselves going when they feel like they want to stop and walk? My biggest struggle happens mentally. Basically their advice was : I tell myself to stop whining.

I've always been a pretty analytical person, making up my mind based on statistics. Running Karen is no different. Last week, I pored over my Garmin results, looking at paces. What strategy should I take for this marathon? I'm not a negative-split person. And I've had enough positive splits marathons to know how painful they are. I really just need another perfectly-even marathon, just like Green Bay. For me, the key to success lies in finding a realistic starting pace. After analyzing the data, plugging it into the McMillan training calculator , and asking the advice of my running buddies, I've finally settled on some goals.

Affirmation came in the form of my fortune cookie this afternoon :

I have six more days to fully get my mojo back. Hubby and I are planning on a running movie the night before the race. That and the excitement should be just what I need to arrive at the starting line with my head in the right place. A post about my goals will be coming later this week.

How do you select goal paces for a race? Are you always over-analyzing data like I am or do you just trust your gut?

Do you usually end up with the same goal you started with?